Abstract: A statistical model for packet transmission probability is proposed to detect network bottleneck link in the field of statistical inference of network linklevel loss. The model adopts cumulant generating function to analyze pathlevel packet transmission probability from endtoend measurements and estimate linklevel packet transmission probability. Due to the relationship between network packet transmission probability and the loss probability, the linklevel packet loss information can be indirectly obtained. Simulations show that the model can accurately infer network linklevel packet transmission probability information without highload probe traffic and detect network bottleneck link in terms of Chernoff bound.

Key words: network measurement, bottleneck link, loss, inference