Abstract:

It is investigated the confidence probability of Monte Carlo (MC) simulation results of system bit error rate (BER), under condition of single-path Rayleigh fading channels and data modulated in binary phase shift key（BPSK）. Firstly, some principles and conclusions of traditional MC methods are put forward. And extended these conclusions to more general conditions. Secondly, the numerical relations among the max relative error of the simulation results,the signal to noise ratio, ratio of the data rate to the Doppler shift, And the fading cycles under certain confidence probability based on the characteristics of Rayleigh fading channels are deduced. The simulation number can be deduced by this numerical relation. It is also indicated in graphs under typical simulations for reference of engineering practice. All conclusions are demonstrated by computer simulations.

Key words: fading, Monte Carlo simulation, simulation confidence probability, relative error, simulation number